END OF AN ERA

Next week I retire! Everyone tells me I’ll be as busy as ever but it’s time for me to move on from what has been an enjoyable and rewarding career in the fabulous industry that is aviation. My wonderful colleagues at MIDAS Aviation don’t quite believe that I’m stopping and think that after a summer off I’ll be hankering for that metaphorical whiff of kerosene, and only too pleased to return to work. Never say never but…

My first steps in aviation were the chance to work for the iconic airline that was Pan Am, and which I only later recognised to be the truly international company it was, at least in terms of the diversity of staff and the respect they had for one another. I worked at Vancouver International Airport just as it set about showing the world how an airport could grasp control of its own destiny. I ran the forecasting, economics and statistics at IATA when they still had a London-based team. And I’ve spent many years working in air service development, mostly as a consultant in one shape or another.

As a Founding Partner in MIDAS Aviation for the last 8 years, it’s been great to have a platform to make observations about the industry globally, usually based on what is happening in the here and now. However, indulge me one last time as I reflect back on a career in aviation and specifically on four features of the industry and the world of work that I have experienced, and their implications for the future of aviation and air travel.

Rebecca Rowland, MIDAS Aviation

Forecasting the Future

I started work in this industry with a job at Pan Am back in 1988, 35 years ago. In that time commercial air travel has grown enormously but in many respects it is the same as it ever was, just bigger. The planes are bigger and there are more of them. The airports are busier and air travel is less about luxury and more about mass travel. However, as I step away, I can’t help thinking that the industry is on the cusp of some major changes.

When we work on an air traffic forecast we look at historic trends, economic growth projections, population growth and the myriad of other factors which influence overall demand. Only recently have we had to factor in shrinking populations as we are seeing in Japan, bans on short haul air travel as we are seeing in France, and even the possibility that island nations might be submerged by water at the end of the forecast period. We can argue back and forth about the impact of environmental concerns on travel demand but acknowledge there are many unknowns. In our long term forecasting, what we have barely touched the surface of is the effect that new technologies will have on how we all travel and move about.

One of my favourite films is the 1997 surreal and futuristic sci-fi action movie by Luc Besson, “The Fifth Element”, in which Bruce Willis plays the role of a taxi driver. His taxi pays homage to the American yellow checker style of the 1960’s but is airborne, dodging and weaving between other vehicles in aerial traffic lanes. Certainly futuristic at the time it was made, it’s now an image that is closer than we might have imagined, and one that points towards aviation’s future. Electric vertical take-off aircraft, or e-vtols, might be commonplace before long and once they can fly beyond the range needed for urban mobility, what impact might they have on aviation as we know it?

I find myself asking would we still need runways? If these aircraft were genuinely quieter would we need airports to be out of town, or could they be close to where people live? Airport forecasts typically look ahead 30, 40 or 50 years, so what might aviation look like by 2053, or 2063 or even 2073? How will what once appeared radical and futuristic technical change affect the industry; I’m not hearing many (any) people asking these questions.

The World of Work

As I leave the world of work I’m all too conscious of how it is changing. When I started freelancing after my first child was born I felt I had to hide the fact that I worked from home, and even more so that there were children where I worked. On more than one occasion I’d be jamming my office door with my foot while I engaged with a client on the phone to prevent a child who was clamouring for my attention from interrupting. It was a compromise that enabled me to combine a fulfilling career and having a family, though there were many moments when it felt like I had sacrificed too much.

Today, in our post Covid world, this is how many GenZ’s aspire to live. Entrepreneurial, in control of their life, able to earn a living while achieving that sought after work-life balance. I see the children of my friends, now twenty-somethings who I have known all their lives, spend a month with mates based in an Airbnb in Portugal or Mexico or Spain, surfing after a day at work or heading out to film their new surroundings using drones to capture the view and post it on Instagram. They are in professional jobs, on the first footholds of the career ladder, and I can’t help but feel a little envious.

In truth, I think the changes we are seeing now were in train well before Covid disrupted our lives, but they made more of us believe that work-life balance was something we could aim for, or maybe the search for work-life balance only became a thing because Covid made us see the world of work had been placing too many demands on us.

I’m proud of the fact that at MIDAS Aviation we’ve been building a team where work-life balance matters. We draw on the skills of a team located in different places, often working part-time and flexibly. We acknowledge and facilitate the needs of parents of kids with health issues or school plays, of people who want to be able to help with grandchildren, or just want to be able to have other interests in their lives.

I love data

I studied Physics at University because that was what the clever kids did. If I was starting over now I’d choose something with a better mix of science and arts, where analysis and creativity could be better blended. Data visualisation is a field that has emerged in the last few years and has provided us at MIDAS Aviation with opportunities to provide genuine insight and analysis while recognising that not everyone understands numbers written as numbers or even explained as text. A picture tells a thousand words, after all.

As the industry moves forward there will be more and more data at our fingertips but also more need for those who can make sense of it and enable better decision-making as a result. Hopefully we’ll see an end to the 140-page PowerPoint slide decks produced by the large consulting firms and more recognition of the skills needed to tell the story in the data succinctly and with clarity.

For all the data we have to hand, as consultants, we need to be careful not to dazzle and befuddle clients with complex analysis. Are our forecasts more accurate because we have more and better data? An econometric model has its place but much more important is a real understanding of the myriad of reasons people have for traveling.

Getting real over climate change

And finally, the climate crisis. While the scientists have been warning about climate change for years, there are times when I still feel like the aviation industry is in denial. Sure, there have been massive improvements in efficiency and every mile flown has a smaller impact on the environment now than in the past but as long as year-over-year passenger growth is the target and the measure of performance, and as long as the increase in people flying is more then the incremental improvement in emissions, the problem keeps growing. As other sectors decarbonise aviation will be an ever more obvious culprit in maintaining climate damaging emissions.

I am at least seeing more industry insiders speak out but there seems to be a big gulf between the rhetoric and the reality. I’ve always thought that one day the cost of doing nothing would be more than the cost of doing something. Maybe we have already reached that day. The longer we spend arguing about who will pay for what needs to be done may well mean that we all pay more in the long run.

And there are policy decisions being made that may come to be seen as short sighted. Take the decision to ban short haul flights in at least one European market. It’s a nice headline and superficially does the right thing. Aside from the fact that this may lead to a higher level of cross border air traffic and that more of the slots that would have been used for short flights with smaller aircraft will now be allocated to larger aircraft for long haul flights, these are the journeys which could most easily be operated by electric aircraft with potentially no emissions at all. How can one of the solutions to the problem we face gain traction if the market is banned? The body of research that points to consumers giving up other discretionary spending before they are prepared to give up travel, including air travel, shows how important travel is to people. If there’s a future in which we get to have our cake and eat it i.e. get to fly without harmful emissions, then why we shouldn’t we aim for that? I’m not someone who dismisses the climate crisis because I think ultimately technology will fix it – I think there will be a degree of consumer behaviour change required – but technology must be part of the solution.

I know many are sceptical about climate change induced behaviour change in the travelling public but I personally know a number of people who have decided to no longer fly at all. I leave the industry very aware that I’m someone who has travelled the world, who has flown many more times than the average person, and who loves flying. I have a massive carbon debt from flying. Yes, I will still fly but I intend to reduce how often I fly and will use a car or train where I can instead.

So, what next? Covid gave me a chance to indulge a hobby making fused glass. So from now on you can find me over on Instagram at Rebecca.rowland99 or at www.beccarowlandfusedglass.com!